Zac Gallen has looked like a completely different pitcher at home compared to how he has performed on the road. Case in point, Gallen has surrendered just 1 ER over 3 starts and 17 IP this season. He gets another favorable matchup against a Tigers lineup that is ranked just 24th in OPS against opposing right handed pitching. I like Gallen's chances of getting in six innings tonight.

This is a big number for Seth Lugo who has been lights out this season and particularly recently having piled up 34 strikeouts in his last four outings. I would argue that Lugo is running red hot/way above expectations in the K department. If we look at the underlying metrics Lugo is averaging 8.7% SwStr% which is lower than his career average of 9.8%. Lugo does have a favorable matchup against the Oakland As, however this number is high enough where I'm comfortable fading Lugo against almost any opponent.

This is a big number for Gore who has failed to record 7+ Ks in five of eight starts this season. He will face a very familiar foe in the Phillies who Gore has faced six times since 2022 and has failed to eclipse 7+ Ks in all six outings. I also like that Gore threw a career high 111 pitches in his last appearance.

Toronto Ace Kevin Gausman has gotten off to a rocky start this season however I believe it can be largely attributed to the 2x All-Star finding his form versus Gausman being on the decline. Prior to his last outing against the Twins where he got lit up, Gausman had put together four consecutive excellent starts, allowing just two ER. This is a buy low spot as this line is often set at 18.5 outs. I consider TB more of a neutral matchup.

Frankie Montas start to the season has been a bit of a roller coaster thus far. Montas strikeout metrics do not look good and the 31 year old hurler is averaging a 8.8% SwStr% which is significantly lower than is 12.8% career average. He will face the toughest lineup in the league in the Dodgers who unsurprisingly have tremendous career numbers against Montas, in addition to just 7 Ks over 55 career ABs.

This is just a huge number for Josh Hart who has been tremendous in this series, however so much has to go right for a 6'4'' guard to eclipse at least 18 combined rebounds and assists. I also believe we could see fewer possessions in this game compared to what we saw earlier in the series as well. As well know, fewer possessions = fewer opportunities for rebounds and assists. This number is ultimately closer to Harts ceiling.

Hunter Brown has had a brutal start to the season and possesses an ERA of 7.79, in addition to a WHIP of 2.01. Despite the ugly numbers he has some solid strikeout numbers, albeit a fairly small sample. However it appears that he's even running hot/above expectations with strikeouts as well. Brown gets a tough draw against a Brewers lineup that is 14th in K Rate, on top of the 3rd highest OPS against opposing right handed pitchers.

Triston McKenzie has had a solid start to the season and has racked up at least six Ks in four of his last five outings, however his underlying metrics depict a concerning story. Mckenzie's 9.2% SwStr% is significantly lower than his career average of 12.3%. He will also face a Twins lineup that has been much tougher/stingier as of late, Minnesota possesses a top 10 OPS, as well as a bottom 10 K Rate against opposing right handed pitching since April 1.

Chris Bassitt is having a down season and his strikeout metrics paint a concerning picture. Bassitt's 7.6% Swinging Strike percentage is the lowest mark of his 10 year career besides his rookie season. He will face a Tampa Bay lineup that has been the epitome of average this season, however the Rays projected lineup has excellent career numbers, in addition to a low K Rate against Bassitt.

Getting this prop out ASAP as it is on the move. Cortes looks healthy to me and his K Metrics are all in line with this career averages. He gets a great matchup against the White Sox who sport the 4th highest K rate against opposing southpaws.

Jared Jones has proven to be one of the MLB truly elite young arms and at age 22 is already proving why the Pirates have a very bright future. Jones has been held under this line in only 3 of his 8 starts on the season, however the Pirates are careful with him and he has only eclipsed 90 pitches twice. He is facing a Cubs offense that not only rank in the top 10 in OPS over the last 2 weeks, but that Jones has also faced in his previous start. Considering the pirates reluctance to over extend Jones and the fact that the Cubs just faced him, I believe 6 IP is a tall order.

Jose Quintana's numbers do not look good and his underlying metrics paint a very worrisome picture. On the surface, Quintana has failed to throw 5 Ks in a single start this season. However if we look under the proverbial hood, I would argue hes actually run a bit hit in the stirkeout department. Quintana possesses a dismal 6.9% SwStr% and his 84.1% contact rate are both career worst marks. He will face a Phillies lineup who hes struggled against historically.